Fox News Poll: Mamdani maintains significant lead in NYC mayoral race

Ahead of Thursday’s debate, a new Fox News survey finds the Democratic nominee, Zohran Mamdani, maintaining a substantial lead in the New York City mayoral race as voters see him as best to handle the city’s top problems. He also receives positive personal reviews and has more supporters who are enthusiastic and committed to voting.

All that gives the self-described Democratic socialist a 21-point lead among New York City registered voters: 49% back Mamdani, while 28% go for independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and 13% favor the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa.

Mamdani rises above the 50% threshold among likely voters, garnering 52% support (28% for Cuomo, 14% for Sliwa).

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Independent candidate and current mayor Eric Adams receives 2-3% support, despite dropping out of the race on September 28.

"Adams will appear on the ballot because he dropped out after the deadline for removing names," says Democratic Pollster Chris Anderson, whose company Beacon Research conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "We include him in the poll because some people will still vote for him, and those votes will still be tallied."

Support for Mamdani has increased since the September Fox News survey, up 5 percentage points among likely voters and 4 points among registered voters.

The analysis below focuses on New York City registered voters.

Mamdani’s strongest support comes from very liberal voters (78%), voters under the age of 30 (67%), Democrats (63%), and women under 45 (62%).

For Cuomo, it’s moderates (44%), voters ages 65+ (44%), women ages 45 and over (42%), and independents (35%).

Among the small subgroup of Jewish voters, 42% favor Cuomo, while nearly as many back Mamdani at 38% and 13% go for Sliwa.

Sliwa holds onto Republicans (60%) and President Donald Trump’s 2024 supporters (58%), while White voters without a college degree split among the three major candidates (30% each).

More than half of nonwhite voters back Mamdani, including 51% of Black voters and 52% of Hispanic voters, while roughly 3 in 10 back Cuomo.

More Mamdani supporters are enthusiastic (75% extremely or very) about voting than Sliwa’s (59%) or Cuomo’s (43%). Also, more of his backers are certain they will vote for him (89%) than Sliwa’s (82%) or Cuomo’s (75%).

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Meanwhile, Mamdani supporters say they are voting for him rather than against his opponents (88% vs. 12%), whereas sizeable minorities of Cuomo’s (40%) and Sliwa’s (32%) backers describe their vote as against the other candidates.

"The interesting question is about turnout," says Shaw. "Will voters who oppose Mamdani but are ambivalent about the other candidates hold their noses and show up for Cuomo?"

Voters name crime (25%), the cost of living (20%), and housing (16%) as the top problems facing the Big Apple.  Nothing else reaches double-digit mentions, although homelessness comes close at 8%. 

While that is almost exactly where things stood in September, the 12-point edge Cuomo previously held among crime-concerned voters has declined. Mamdani is now ahead among crime voters by 5 points and continues to lead among cost of living and housing voters. 

Only 3% of NYC voters mention illegal immigration as the city’s biggest problem, but there’s no doubt where New Yorkers stand on ICE, as 66% think it is too aggressive in its deportation efforts in their city.

When it comes to which candidate can best handle the city’s problems, Mamdani has sizable advantages. Between 40-49% say he can better handle the local economy/cost of living, housing, taxes, and crime, while those numbers fall between 32-33% for Cuomo and 17-26% for Sliwa (his highest support being 26% on crime). 

Mamdani again has the edge on personal traits. Nearly two-thirds say, "cares about people like you," "honest and trustworthy," and "can bring needed change" describe him very or somewhat well. For Cuomo, it’s fewer than 6 in 10 say he’s empathetic (57%), honest (50%), and can bring change (53%), while Sliwa is at 51%, 50%, and 43%, respectively.  

The only exception is being a "strong leader," as 63% say the phrase describes Cuomo and 61% for Mamdani.  More than 4 in 10 say Sliwa is a strong leader (44%).

Since the September survey, all three candidates have seen an increase in their favorability: Mamdani is up 8 points, as is Sliwa, while Cuomo is up 5 points. And while Cuomo is viewed less favorably than Mamdani, he reversed a net favorable rating of -5 points (45% favorable, 50% unfavorable) to +2 today (50-48%). 

Trump’s favorable rating held steady at 24%, while New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is up 2 points to 55%.

New York Attorney General Letitia James, who was indicted on mortgage fraud charges on October 9, holds a 59% favorable rating among NYC voters. On October 14, shortly after her indictment, she joined Hochul at a campaign rally for Mamdani where she received a standing ovation. Her favorable rating is the highest of anyone tested, although she also has the highest unknown rate (11%).

This uptick in positive ratings also applies to the city itself, as 42% are satisfied with how things are going, up 5 points since September.

One more thing…

With the first phase of Trump’s Middle East peace deal underway, the survey finds more New York City voters back the Palestinians than the Israelis by 6 points, down from 8 points since September.

Trump signed the peace deal on October 13. The survey was conducted October 10-14.

Those siding with the Palestinians back Mamdani (70%) while those supporting the Israelis split between Cuomo (39%), Mamdani (28%), and Sliwa (23%).

NYC: CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE

Conducted October 10-14, 2025 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 New York City registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (98) and cellphones (636) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (269). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. There was a subsample of 793 likely voters and the margin of sampling error was ±3.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are identified based on past vote history and self-reported likelihood of voting.