Free Agent Profile: Michael Conforto

Rather quickly, there has been a growing assumption that Brendan Donovan will be traded. The stove is hot for Donovan, and it seems like it’s a fairly safe assumption to think he won’t be a Cardinal in 2026. A consequence of this is that the Cardinals’ outfield situation is rather bad next year to put it bluntly. Now Donovan only played 18 games in LF last year, but with JJ Wetherholt being essentially MLB ready (I think his ZiPS will bear this out), I’m pretty sure if he stayed in the organization, he’d primarily play LF. In fact, I’d go as far as to say without Donovan, the Cardinals are currently trending towards having zero reliable outfielders on Opening Day.

Lars Nootbaar will likely start the year hurt and we have no idea how long he’ll be hurt. I know we all have PTSD from the Tommy Edman situation, I actually think there’s more reason for pessimism for Nootbaar than there was for Edman as far as returning quickly is concerned. Jordan Walker should play next year in AAA, although it’s not clear yet if he will. Victor Scott started last year with a bang, but it’s not clear where his offensive level will be in 2026. Nathan Church was a non-prospect and played poorly in his limited chances at the MLB level. Alec Burleson shouldn’t play the outfield and Jose Fermin has barely played the outfield in his professional career.

They need an outfielder and arguably two. There are a few different ways of acquiring this outfielder. They could unload Nolan Arenado’s contract for a similar bad contract which is attached to an outfielder such as Jorge Soler. They could get an outfielder in return for something they trade. I will say, I would not count on getting an MLB outfielder in the trades. At least, not a starting caliber, MLB ready on day one outfielder. What I’m saying is the trades of Donnie, Gray, Arenado, maybe Romero are not likely to solve this problem. If they can return an MLB outfielder, it’s one with only a year or two of team control, or more of a 4th outfielder. I doubt they want the former (unless again we’re trading bad contracts) because why trade Donovan, and the latter will help especially if they are right-handed and can play CF, but still leaves a big hole in one of the corner spots.

May I present a potential free agent solution. It’s not an exciting solution. I actually don’t think this will be a popular suggestion, although maybe I’m wrong. I think a good buy low candidate is Michael Conforto. Conforto was very bad last year. I want to be clear. He’s a real buy low candidate. He was below replacement level for the Dodgers and didn’t even crack their playoff roster.

There are many arguments against signing Conforto and I’m going to undercut my case by sharing them, but I might as well beat you to the punch. He’s a left-handed hitter who should be platooned. Cardinals don’t really need that. He was very bad defensively in LF, which means the Cardinals would acquire yet another player who maybe has to DH. He arguably hasn’t had a legit good season in six years, so whatever I’m trying to capture is likely long gone. He’s 33.

All of that is true. On the flipside, he’s a one-year gamble and probably a fairly cheap one-year gamble at that. He had a 112 wRC+ all the way back in… 2024. So fairly recently, he was a good hitter. It came with a .350 xwOBA, which is what led the Dodgers to sign him to a 1 year, $17 million deal. And then despite being a below replacement player, they gave him 486 PAs. They did give up on him in the playoffs, but I know I’m not the only one looking at those stats and seeing at least one more good hitting season out of him.

He’s a bit of a weird hitter now. He does three things really well, three things that you would think would lead to being a good hitter. He never chases, swinging at 23.2% of pitches out of the zone, which is 82nd percentile. Somewhat predictably, because he doesn’t chase, he walks a lot. Despite being an 83 wRC+ hitter, he walked 11.5% of the time, which almost perfectly mirrors his career rate. And he swings the bat very hard, with a 74 mph bat speed, which ranks in the 77th percentile. So why was he a bad hitter?

Well, when he does make contact, it’s not as impressive. He squares up on the ball just 21% of the time, which ranks in the 10th percentile. That is a noticeable drop from 2024, when it was 25.3% of the time. His average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and sweet spot percentage all range from 44 to 56th percentile, which is not really good enough for an offensive-oriented player. It has led to an xBA of just .237 which ranks in the 20th percentile. Granted, that’s a lot better than his actual batting average of .199 last season.

His bat was bad, but so was his defense. In fact, his defense kind of fell off a cliff and I don’t really know why. He was -8 OAA in 1,010 innings in LF this past season. His defense has been trending downwards, especially since he had to miss a full year back in 2022. But I’m counting on a bit of a bounceback here, because I don’t really know why his defense fell off a cliff. He was -3 OAA in LF in 835 innings in 2024 – not good but certainly playable; and -3 OAA in 761 innings in RF in 2023.

His sprint speed has remained fairly constant the past three seasons – it was 26 feet per second last year, 26.3 in 2024, and 26.1 feet per second in 2023. I don’t feel like that would explain him suddenly being horrible on defense. Now to be clear, this is a very slow outfielder. He will be below average defensively. He is also to be clear still faster than Alec Burleson. But there is a difference between -8 and we’ll say -4. He also has a strong arm – his average throw was 86.8 mph which ranks in the 67th percentile. Despite that, his arm has never been an asset in his defensive arsenal – he’s only had one season where it produced a positive run result and that +1.

Conforto last season had a .247 BABIP, and the reason the Dodgers kept playing him was because if his BABIP was .277 (his 2024 BABIP) or .290 (his career BABIP), he’d be a good hitter. He wouldn’t be a good player, because his defense really dragged him down, but he’d be a good hitter. The other reason is that his power took a hit, with his HR/FB% falling to a career low 10.3%. Yes, I know, Busch Stadium is famously the place where hitters find their power. (Though getting to play some games at Great American Ballpark and American Family Field – both top 8 places to hit homers – might actually help)

Listen, I’m not arguing Conforto will return to his former glory. I’m not even arguing that he’ll return to being a good hitter. I am saying that if this is the area where the Cardinals are shopping for an outfielder – ignoring the multi-year deals, trying to find reclamation projects – there aren’t really any good options. Trust me I looked and the options are basically “This guy can’t field” or “This guy can’t hit” or both. Yes, if we sign Conforto, we will be the third team where Lucy is placing the football down for us. I swear this is the time we can actually kick it.

For what it’s worth, Conforto has been a 118 wRC+ hitter against RHP in his career, but for presumably small sample related reasons, he’s actually been an above average hitter against LHP the past two seasons though. He was way worse in 2023, so this is not like a post-injury thing. Just a weird little quirk.

Anyway, I am presenting the case for Michael Conforto. I don’t know that I want him. I don’t know what the Cardinals plans are in the outfield. If they want to sign a Harrison Bader or swerve completely and get Kyle Tucker, I’m all aboard that train. If they can manage to get an outfielder or two in trades, I’m also all aboard that train. But if they are forced to go the reclamation project route, I mean it’s a pretty bad list. A lot of things have to go right for Conforto to work out here, I fully acknowledge. That tends to be how a reclamation project works though.

Here really is the main argument for Conforto. You’re not willing to commit to an outfielder for multiple years and you don’t want to block Jordan Walker, but you do want Jordan Walker to be in AAA for 2026. This is the kind of signing you would make. Someone you know would not be back in 2027, and you hope the bat is good enough to get traded at the deadline. That’s pie in the sky scenario: Conforto has a 120 wRC+ at the deadline, he gets traded, Walker takes over at that point, having a 120 wRC+ or better in AAA. And if he sucks, well whenever Walker is ready, you can just cut him.

I get it though. If you’re completely against picking up Conforto, I don’t even disagree with any of the points you will make. I made a lot of them in this post. I’m just presenting the case to signing Michael Conforto.