Projecting the 2026 Cardinals offensive performance

The next full season projection for next year was recently released as FanGraphs published the Steamer projections for the 2026 season. The season is expected to be full of growing pains as Chaim Bloom begins the first year of a rebuild of unknown length. While there is plenty of time for the 26-man roster to change, the early projections from Steamer show that the St. Louis Cardinals may be ticketed for another losing season.

Steamer, a projection model that projects thousands of major and minor league players, currently has Brendan Donovan and Sonny Gray’s among the Cardinals’ top players next season. I believe there is greater than a 50% chance that both players are dealt this winter, which creates and opening in the everyday lineup and also leaves a big hole in an already hurting rotation. Their current model also has Nolan Arenado as their starting third baseman, so I’ll dig more into who I expect to see fill some of these spots. While it is obvious that plenty will change before the start of Spring Training, I wanted to take the opportunity to look at the current Cardinals’ projections and compare them to the rest of the league and their NL Central rivals.

In order to leave opportunity to jump into this further, and with so many question marks surrounding the starting rotation, I will just leave a note at the bottom who Steamer currently projects to make the most starts for the team next season. I feel the lineup is a little more set minus a couple spots, but I think the players who will actually play those positions are already on the roster for the most part.

Catcher – Ivan Herrera: 2.3 fWAR, .272/.361/.439, 127 wRC+

Kicking things off, the Cardinals have a pretty strong presence behind the plate if Ivan Herrera can just improve enough defensively to simply be playable at catcher. By wRC+, Herrera is projected to be the best offensive catcher in the National League, beating out William Contreras and Will Smith as the other two backstops to break the 120-mark. Steamer estimates that Herrera would pop 16 homers in 107 games, maybe anticipating a move back behind the dish could sap some of his powers and limit his availability again. Among regulars, Herrera put up the third-best walk rate projection, while sitting at the top in on-base percentage and just .002 points behind William Contreras in OPS.

If Herrera can recover well from offseason surgery, he can hopefully become at least passable as a catcher. Last season, Cardinals’ catchers were nothing special defensively either, which shows how much work Herrera needs to do to get back in the team’s good graces. Even though he was a DH for the last part of the season, the organization announced he would come to Spring Training with the chance to win the starting catcher job, along with Pedro Pages and Jimmy Crooks at the upper levels with Leonardo Bernal and Rainiel Rodriguez speeding up the ladder. By FanGraphs’ Defensive Value statistic, Herrera ranks as a league-worst -9.6. If the offseason work was successful and Herrera can bump up to even middle-of-the-pack with the glove, he could play his way into a top catcher conversation.

Another plausible outcome is that Herrera continues to struggle behind the plate and then becomes a full-time DH, or grab a day a week in the outfield. If that were to happen, the offense takes a massive hit with Pages and/or Crooks grabbing the at-bats, with each of them projected to have below-average seasons by measure of wRC+.

First base – Willson Contreras: 1.3 fWAR .243/.333/.430, 116 wRC+

This was interesting because FanGraphs did not list a single player under Cardinals first baseman. Last year’s everyday guy there, Willson Contreras, was listed as a catcher and part-time first baseman Alec Burleson was only found in the outfield. While there has been some talk about a trade, I do not a deal surrounding Contreras happening this offseason, so I penciled him in as the starter.

In a offense-first position, Contreras would rank tied for fifth by wRC+ and his 1.3 fWAR would place him in sixth, between Spencer Horwitz and Sal Stewart. I only looked at offense here for Contreras because Steamer had him ranked as a -8.2 defensive player and I assume that meant at catcher. With the bat, the projection model sees Contreras staying healthy for just 100 games and hitting 17 homers next season. If the model holds true, the first baseman would see regression in every statistical category.

Last year, Willson played in the second-most games in his career after moving out from behind the plate, so the 100 game projection is a little low for my expectation. For that, I expect him to hit at least 20 homers again, but the other numbers are up for debate. Contreras is still guaranteed two more years on his deal and has a club option for the 2028 season. Depending on how things go, he could play himself into trade talks as long as he is open to waiving his no-trade clause. I would be surprised if things went that way this season, however, as the only other legitimate first base option is Alec Burleson and he has done fine in the outfield where he can find himself most everyday if the Cardinals clear up some space.

Second base – Brendan Donovan: 3.0 fWAR .280/.353/.412, 117 wRC+

Here is my first real question mark as I once again do view Donovan as a likely trade piece. With the amount of interest surrounding Donnie, I think the Cardinals would kick themselves if they do not find a deal this offseason, similar to the case of Arenado and even Lars Nootbaar. Donnie has some of the most value on the team, while also being an elder statesman with only two seasons remaining of control. A Donovan trade would truly be a look at the specific business-oriented moves and nothing related to performance or animosity towards the player.

We may be some time away from a conclusion the the trade front though, so back to his Cardinals’ projection. The trade interest makes even more sense as Donovan is ranked as the third-best second baseman in the NL by fWAR and second-best by wRC+. While he checks in as a negative defensively, his versatility can offset some of that negative value. Donnie was named an All-Star last season and flirted with the batting average leaderboard for a bit, and that is the type of player we come to expect. Unfortunately, that is the type of player who is a great support for a lineup full of big burly bombers, and right now, Donovan is a main focus of the Cardinals offense. His 12 homer projection is just behind his career-high, but is actually just the tenth-most in the National League as middle infielders are starting to find more pop.

Since I expect Donnie to be dealt, I wanted to take this chance to shout out that I believe JJ Wetherholt has a very real shot at being in the Opening Day lineup at second base. I am scared to say it at risk of rushing, but the reviews all around the league show that he is the real deal. I just want to believe again so I’m going to buy in and say that Wetherholt will fill in for Donnie at the keystone for the 2026 season. Steamer only has Wetherholt playing in 19 games, so his projections are not worth diving into at this point. For what it is worth, though, their Steamer600, Wetherholt was ranked in the top-10 of rookies.

Third base – Nolan Arenad0: 1.7 fWAR .252/.308/.410, 100 wRC+

Next up, Steamer projects that the 2026 campaign will be a massive bounceback for potential future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado. After putting up the worst full season since his rookie season, the third baseman is expected to see an uptick in his performance across the board, but I expect his improvement to be felt by a different organization. Arenado refused a trade last offseason and is potentially regretting that decision as both parties agreed to pick up trade conversations again this year. The amount of suitors and return for Arenado’s services is up for debate but his projection predicts that the acquiring team will be getting a decent season next year.

A 100 wRC+ season would be a welcomed surprise for Arenado’s new organization, but it would still put him below the upper half of offensive third basemen in baseball. Of course, Nado provided plenty of value with his glove throughout his career and is projected to put up a top-10 season by defensive value. I believe that a trade of Arenado will open up the hot corner for Nolan Gorman to get his last chance at an extended starting opportunity after getting 351 at-bats split between second and third. The defense was not spectacular at third, but with Wetherholt profiling as a better second baseman, I am okay with putting Gorm at one spot and allow him to focus just on his hitting. If his defense fails to improve, then he would have the potential to fill in as the DH, as long as his bat plays, but then the infield configuration would need some attention.

Using Steamer600 rather than the 66 game projection the model gives, Gorman would lead the team with 26 homers and finish third among regulars with a 10.1% walk rate. The strikeouts and average remain below average, but a 25-homer season by Gorman could be enough to extend his stay until St. Louis finds their next third baseman of the future.

Shortstop – Masyn Winn: 3.6 fWAR .261/.319/.403, 104 wRC+

In an infield full of questions, having a sure thing at short for next year and beyond is encouraging. That is what the Cardinals have in Gold Glove winner Masyn Winn and offensive progress would be massive for the team’s future. If not already, I believe that Winn is a top-10 shortstop in all of baseball and can further his case with a step forward offensively next season.

I have said it since his debut and will continue to, but Masyn Winn should be a 20-20 hitter and can provide a spark at many spots in the lineup. Last week, I said he can get his shot at the leadoff spot again, but I really don’t have a problem with him hitting at any place in the order. Where the team slots Wetherholt will do a lot to fill out the lineup. For Winn’s projections, Steamer does see him taking a leap forward with a 15 homer and 12 stolen base campaign. After a 91 wRC+ in 2025, he is projected to jump to a 104 wRC+ and is ranked 8th among shortstops with a 3.6 fWAR.

While it is still not the 20-20 season I want and expect, Winn will be 24-years-old next season and has plenty of time to grow into his full potential. As a prospect, he was ranked as having a 60-grade future hit tool, with 50-grade power, and above-average speed. Even with the offseason knee surgery, I have high hopes for an electric season from the next great Cardinals shortstop.

Left field – Alec Burleson: 2.0 fWAR .278/.333/.454, 120 wRC+

I rode quite the roller coaster on Silver Slugger award winner Alec Burleson last season. After a terrible second half in 2024 and a power outage to start 2025, I was ready to start trimming his playing time for a Luken Baker runway. Thank goodness my opinion means nothing. After having a .596 OPS in the season’s first month-plus, Burly poked 14 homers through July and went into the All-Star break with a .293 average and .806 OPS.

My next challenge to Burleson was if he could maintain that pace, as he had a similar start to the 2024 season before his slump of a second half. The lefty stepped up again and nearly mimicked his first half, with a little less power after dealing with a wrist issue. He still finished the year with 18 longballs and an .802 OPS while playing left field and first base. With Contreras set at first, I anticipate Burly getting most of his time in left and a day or two a week at DH or first.

Steamer projects for a near-identical season for his fifth year in the bigs, putting up a 120 wRC+ and hitting 20 homers with a .278 batting average. Among NL left fielders, his wRC+ would be third-best while finishing in seventh via fWAR. I have no problem with that projection, although a few more homers never hurts. They see him keeping his newfound desire to walk, which hopefully he can pair with making aggressive swings when he does want to attack a pitch.

Center field – Victor Scott II: 1.0 fWAR .226/.298/.327, 79 wRC+

Center field is where I may be opposite of most Cardinals fans and I hope to be wrong. As of now, I am not extremely bullish on Victor Scott II’s offensive future, and I am also not one who thinks phenomenal defense should outweigh being a waste offensively. While last season was a good step forward for the 24-year-old, Scott still seemed to be overpowered like he was when he was promoted too soon in 2024.

Scott hit .216 and put up a 76 wRC+, which was actually higher than I anticipated it being. Most concerning for me was Scott striking out 24% of the time after having a positive contact as a prospect. Scott did take walks at an above-average 9.1%, which helped him get on base enough to steal 34 bags. He did most of his damage in the first half of the year, though, as he had 24 swipes and four of his five homers at the break. His playing time dwindled near the end of the season and he seemed to be trying to bunt for hits more often.

Steamer is more positive than I am, seeing another positive step forward for VSII next season. He once again grades out as an excellent defensive center fielder, but his 79 wRC+ projection is near the bottom of the league at the position. In total, he is expected to be worth 1.0 fWAR, good for 17th in the NL.

Right field – Lars Nootbaar/Jordan Walker

The right field question may not have an answer just yet, but I anticipate Jordan Walker being the Opening Day right fielder and Lars Nootbaar on the injured list. That may not be a fair projection for Noot in late November, but the lack of a timeline is not a good start. If Noot were to be healthy and remain in St. Louis, then I could see him starting in left with Burleson taking most of the reps at DH. What I expect, though, is Walker manning the outfield grass for one last hoorah.

Steamer disagrees, though, projecting Walker to play in just 84 games with Noot playing in 105. I’m not totally sure how injuries play into these projections, but that seems like an optimistic number for Nootbaar and low on Walker’s end. Steamer does think that Nootbaar stays a capable bat, with a 114 wRC+ and 13 homers in his limited playing time. More exciting, though, is that they view Walker as close to league-average after being borderline unwatchable during the last two seasons.

After a 66 wRC+ and a strikeout rate approaching 32% last season, Steamer sees Walker totaling a 98 wRC+ with 10 homers and a K-rate trimmed to 26%. While still below the top prospect expectations, a .700+ OPS and a league-average offensive season would be seen as a win for the Cardinals. What that does for the long-term plan, though, remains to be seen. Of course, Walker does have one minor league option season remaining and the team could opt to have him in Memphis. I, personally, do not see the Cardinals using that last option season and could see them preferring to leave it attached to him, just in case they want to deal him later.

As for how I see his season going… who knows? I liked what I saw in Spring Training where it looked like the Cardinals just told him not to swing at anything on the outer half, strike or not. I like that idea , in theory, but it did not translate to regular season plate discipline as the breaking ball away continued to destroy Walker. I don’t know how to make that adjustment, but Oli Marmol and Brant Brown did point out they wanted to see some more commitment from the outfielder, so maybe we will see a new approach next year.

Projected starting rotation:

Again, I did not see enough substance in the rotation to do a full dive. When moves are made towards filling innings, I may take a deeper look into what the 2026 season could look like. I still wanted to give you a quick look into what Steamer projects.

Sonny Gray is expected to have a 4.0 fWAR season, with a 3.45 ERA and 12-10 record. Again, I assume he is going to be dealt, so the next five starters by estimate games started are Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, and Quinn Mathews. Of the five, McGreevy has the highest fWAR at 1.6 and the lowest projected ERA on the entire pitching staff is his 4.05 ERA. The rotation needs help and this is why I see support coming from outside the organization via cheap deals or in a Donovan trade.

What do you all think about the projections? Where are they off, where am I off? Any free agent targets to help fill those lineup holes? Adolis Garcia, anyone?