The Russia–Ukraine War as Seen From Budapest

Foreign Affairs

The Russia–Ukraine War as Seen From Budapest

The American Conservative sits down with Balázs Orbán, political director to the Hungarian Prime Minister, to discuss why the logic of war should be replaced in the forthcoming Budapest summit by the idea of political settlement. 

(Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

President Donald Trump recently demonstrated willingness for a summit with Russia, in Budapest, to seek an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Balázs Orbán, political director to the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (no relation), sat down with The American Conservative to discuss what are the possibilities of peace in Ukraine, and who in the EU might try to hinder that. 

Hungary has been pushing for peace in Ukraine for a while. This seems to be a great opportunity to demonstrate that the Hungarian position was correct all along.

The goal of Hungarian foreign policy has never been to prove that our position is right, but to clearly represent our national strategic interests. Ukraine is our direct neighbour, which means the Ukraine–Russia war is not a distant conflict but a direct security risk for Hungary. This is why we have consistently advocated a political settlement, and why Prime Minister Viktor Orbán launched a peace mission last summer—during Hungary’s EU presidency—becoming the only European leader to visit both Moscow and Kiev to understand the positions of the parties first-hand. 

In this context, President Trump’s return to office marked a turning point. From the outset, he made it clear that he stands with those seeking peace, and he is the only leader with the political weight to give new momentum to diplomacy. Following the successful conclusion of the Middle East peace process, the Sharm el-Sheikh summit once again confirmed that the American president is indeed a “President of Peace”: conflicts once thought insoluble can be transformed through strategic vision and determined diplomacy. We believe that, in the same spirit, the upcoming Budapest summit—through direct dialogue between the American and Russian presidents—can bring the world closer to restoring peace in Europe.

What seem to be the challenges to peace in Ukraine?

The most important lesson of Prime Minister Orbán’s peace mission last year was that both warring parties remain convinced that time is on their side and that a military victory is still within reach. Under such circumstances, the path toward peace depends not only on the will of the direct actors but also on whether the international community is able to step in as a mediator and steer the process toward a political settlement. The challenge, however, is that many key players—first and foremost the European Union—continue to operate within a wartime logic: in recent years, its decision-making has increasingly narrowed to following Ukraine’s military strategy, and Brussels has often acted as a political agent of one side rather than as a mediator. Hungary, by contrast—despite deep disagreements with the EU leadership—has consistently kept the door open to dialogue with all relevant actors, creating a unique diplomatic environment within the Union, one in which the preconditions for a potential Trump–Putin meeting can realistically be established.

Hungarian relations with Poland suffered on the question of Ukraine. Is the question of Russia going to cause a permanent rift with Poland, the Baltic states, or the EU leadership in Brussels?

Hungary is convinced that long-term regional cooperation is not based on agreement in every detail but on mutual understanding of each other’s perspectives. There is full consensus that Russia’s aggression is a grave violation of international law and that Ukraine needs support—a position Hungary fully shares. Since the outbreak of the war, we have carried out the largest humanitarian operation in our history, providing continuous assistance to those fleeing the conflict and playing a key role in ensuring Ukraine’s energy supply: Over one-third of its electricity imports and more than half of its gas imports come from Hungary. All this is done while making it clear that we will not send weapons and will not participate in the war.

The debate is therefore not about the goals but about the means—and while Brussels often follows a logic of escalation, we see dialogue and political settlement as the key to Europe’s security.

There is no strategic rift with Poland either: relations remain close and friendly, as shown by our excellent cooperation with President Karol Nawrocki. The difference is one of approach: While Donald Tusk asks who will win the war, Prime Minister Orbán’s question is how to end it as soon as possible, save tens of thousands of lives, and guarantee the safety of the Hungarian people.

What are the Hungarian expectations about peace and the settlement of the war from the upcoming meeting in Budapest, given the hangover from the previous Budapest Memorandum?

Donald Trump has already proven in the Middle East peace process that he is capable of achieving what few previously thought possible. His success shows that peace negotiations are not a sprint but a marathon. A setback at the negotiating table is not a reason to give up—on the contrary, it is a reason to continue. According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, this perseverance is precisely what is missing from European politics today. When things do not go as expected, many simply take offense and walk away. That is not how it works. It works the way President Trump does it: You must try again and again—and eventually, you will succeed.

In this spirit, the Budapest summit could offer an important opportunity for the logic of war to be gradually replaced by the will for a political settlement, and for dialogue between the parties to take tangible steps toward a lasting and just peace. Hungary sees its role as doing everything within its power to help create the conditions necessary for a diplomatic settlement. The outcome of the conflict will ultimately be shaped by the political will and agreement of the major powers; our task is to ensure that the Budapest meeting provides a climate of trust, as well as the technical and security framework, that allows dialogue to continue and offers the parties a realistic setting for political resolution. In short, we are not seeking to act as mediators, but to create the practical conditions in which the path to peace can take shape.

It might seem to be a huge boost to Prime Minister Orbán’s position as a peace premier ahead of the elections. Will he focus his run especially on the questions of a realist foreign policy, trade and investment?

I would start by saying that we must not put the cart before the horse: Next spring’s election will not be won by international accolades or diplomatic posturing, but by the Hungarian people themselves, who have the power to secure victory for the patriotic governing parties, Fidesz–KDNP. At the same time, the fact that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have chosen Budapest as the next venue for peace talks on resolving the war is a clear and significant validation of the sovereignty-based policy that the Hungarian government has consistently pursued over the past years.

Experience shows that, in the long run, it is the nations that stay true to their own path, stand firm under external pressure, and refuse to compromise on their core principles—even when doing so entails conflicts—that ultimately prevail. The same was true in the field of migration: we faced immense pressure then as well, yet we did not yield—and, as a result, we avoided the consequences that others are struggling with today. Moreover, many of the Western companies that once criticized us are now cornered by the outcomes of their own sanctions policies, while Hungarian businesses continue to produce, provide jobs, raise wages, and help maintain energy price stability. These positive outcomes strengthen the civic, patriotic community. The Budapest peace summit, our upcoming national holiday on October 23 commemorating the heroes of 1956, Prime Minister Orbán’s forthcoming visit to Washington, and Hungary’s consistent resistance to Brussels’ war agenda will together provide a powerful momentum for the patriotic camp—one that will endure through the election and ultimately deliver a decisive victory for our political community. In this sense, our opponents have every reason to be concerned.

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